Multiple equilibria in a firing game with impartial justice

In many European countries, a majority of employees are hired under very protective labor contracts thatrestrict the ability of the employer to dismiss them. In particular, employees can take to courts the firm'slayoff motive. Given the high costs specific to so-called economic motives and judges' limited ability toprocess an ever growing flow of cases, in the last few years firms have been tempted to invoke faked personalmotives for firing "good" workers. This paper shows that the interaction between firms, employees andthe labor judicial system is consistent with multiple equilibria. Hence firing costs depend not only onvariables under the control of the government, but also on the nature of the equilibrium. Policies aimingat increasing flexibility, interpreted as a reduction in firing costs, should consider the possibility of shiftingfrom a high to a low firing costs equilibrium.Labor judges, Firing costs, Layoff motive, Multiple equilibria.

Financial distress and banks' communication policy in crisis times

This short paper analyzes banks' communication policies in crisis times and the role of imperfect information in enhancing banks' distress. If banks differ in their exposure to risky assets, fragile banks may claim to be solid only in order to manipulate investors' expectations. Then solid banks must pay a larger interest rate than in a perfect information set-up. A stronger sanction for false information would improve the situation of the low-risk banks but deteriorate the situation of the high-risk banks. The total effect on defaulting credit institutions is ambiguous. It is shown that, in some cases, the optimal sanction is lower than the sanction that rules out any manipulatory behaviour.Banks; Disclosure; Financial Crisis; Transparency

Excessive Liability Dollarization in a Simple Signaling Model

If a dollar denominated external debt comes with so many risks, why do emerging economies allow for such an imbalance to accumulate ? The explanation provided in this paper builds on a simple signaling model. By assumption, lenders have no direct possibility to infer a firm’s financial stance. Therefore sound firms might want to borrow dollars and bear a high clearance cost, just in order to signal their type. The success of this policy depends on the behavior of bad firms. When dollar borrowing clearance costs are relatively small with respect to the clearance cost of borrowing in the local currency, the whole private sector would opt for liability dollarization. In this case the signaling effect vanishes, while all firms bear high clearance costs.Original sin; Signaling; Developing countries; Liability dollarization; Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium

Paradigm Shift

This paper analyses the consequences of young researchers' scientifc choice on the dynamics of sciences. We develop a simple two state mean field game model to analyze the competition between two paradigms based on Kuhn's theory of scientifc revolutions. At the beginning of their career, young researchers choose the paradigm in which they want to work according to social and personal motivations. Despite the possibility of multiple equilibria the model exhibits at least one stable solution in which both paradigms always coexist. The occurrence of shocks on the parameters may induce the shift from one dominant paradigm to the other. During this shift, researchers' choice is proved to have a great impact on the evolution of sciences.Paradigm shift, Scienti c choice, Research dynamics, Mean eld game.

Financial Distress And Banks'communication Policy In Crisis Times

This paper analyzes banks’ communication policies in crisis times and the role of imperfect information in enhancing banks' financial distress. If banks differ in their exposure to dubious assets, fragile banks may claim to be sound only in order to manipulate investors' expectations. Then sound banks must pay a larger interest rate than in a perfect information set-up. A stronger sanction for false information would improve the situation of the low-risk banks but would deteriorate the situation of the high-risk banks. The total effect on the economy-wide frequency of default of credit institutions is ambiguous. It can be shown that, in some cases, the optimal sanction is lower than the sanction that rules out any manipulatory behavior.financial distress, financial crisis, banks, disclosure, transparency

Experimental Evidence on the ‘Insidious’ Illiquidity Risk

This paper brings experimental evidence on investors’ behavior subject to an "illiquidity" constraint, where the success of a risky project depends on the participation of a minimum number of investors. The experiment is set up as a frameless coordination game that replicates the investment context. Results confirm the insidious nature of the illiquidity risk: as long as a first illiquidity default does not occur, investors do not seem able to fully internalize it. After several defaults, agents manage to coordinate on a default probability above which they refuse to participate to the project. This default probability is lower than the default probability of the first illiquidity default.Coordination game; Illiquidity risk; Threshold strategy; Experimental economics

Banks' risk race: A signaling explanation

Many observers argue that the abnormal accumulation of risk by banks has been one of the major causes of the 2007-2009 financial turmoil. But what could have pushed banks to engage in such a risk race? The answer brought by this paper builds on the classical signaling model by Spence. If banks' returns can be observed while risk cannot, less efficient banks can hide their type by taking more risks and paying the same returns as the efficient banks. The latter can signal themselves by taking even higher risks and delivering bigger returns. The game presents several equilibria that are all characterized by excessive risk taking as compared to the perfect information case.Banking Sector ; Imperfect Information ; Risk Strategy ; Risk/return Tradeoff ; Signaling

Banks’ risk race: a signaling explanation

Many observers argue that the abnormal accumulation of risk by banks has been one of the major causes of the 2007-2009 financial turmoil. But what could have pushed banks to engage in such a risk race? The answer brought by this paper builds on the classical signaling model by Spence. If banks’ returns can be observed while risk cannot, less efficient banks can hide their type by taking more risks and paying the same returns as the efficient banks. The latter can signal themselves by taking even higher risks and delivering bigger returns. The game presents several equilibria that are all characterized by excessive risk taking as compared to the perfect information case.Banking Sector; Imperfect Information; Risk Strategy; Risk/return Tradeoff; Signaling

Multiple Equilibria in a Firing Game With Impartial Justice

In many European countries, a majority of employees are hired under very protective labor contracts that restrict the ability of the employer to dismiss them. In particular, employees can take to courts the firm's layoff motive. This paper analyses the interaction between firms, employees and the labor judicial system specific to South European countries. If judges' error margin increases when the judicial system is subject to congestion, the game presents multiple equilibria which differ in the frequency of workers abusively fired for personal motives. Policy implications can be inferred.EPL; Labor judges; Firing costs; Layoff motive; Multiple equilibria

The Information Limit to Honest Managerial Behavior

In the last years of the Internet bubble, many managers provided fraudulent financial statements with the aim at inflating the market value of their firms. Is this shortage of honesty an accident or a buit-in feature of shareholder capitalism? This paper argues that in an economy hosting publicly traded companies where investors have only imperfect information about a firm’s type and where a honest financial report may be wrong, at least some bad firms managers will provide false statements. Furthermore, in equilibrium some good firm managers may also resort to corrupt auditors which will issue a favorable report without carrying out any investigation. The frequency of dishonest managers is analysed in keeping with the precision of the report and the total number of firms.Corporate fraud; Accounting information; Manager behavior; Honesty; Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium